Demographic Change in Africa

There is no doubt: Africa will dominate global population dynamics in the 21^st century. While public attention is still focused on Asia’s demography with its currently 4.5 billion inhabitants as a fast-growing and prospering market, today’s one billion sub-Saharan Africans have significantly outpaced Asia in terms of annual population growth (2.6% vs. 1.1%).

While birth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have been high or remained more or less unchanged for years (the current crude birth rate is 37 births per thousand population), a rapid decline in infant mortality (67 deaths per thousand births in 2013 vs.138 in 1970) serves as a major driver of the ongoing population growth, and also an engine for economic growth. The numbers speak for themselves: today one billion people or 16% of the world population live in SSA. By 2050, they will double and in 2100, 3.9 billion people or 39% of the world‘s population could live in the region. This is the official forecast according to the Medium variant of the 2015 United Nations population projections.

A key issue today is the formulation of policies that would help this continent to replicate the conditions that have enabled East Asian countries to prosper and to capture a “demographic dividend“ (DD) during the period covering the early 1960s to the 1990s.

This DD is defined as an economic surplus triggered by the relative increase in the productive working-age adults with respect to their less numerous young dependents below age 15 or age 20. To open the demographic window of opportunity, however, public policies will need to manage a rapid and significant decline in fertility in order to reduce the number of young dependents.

• Zeitbombe Demografie
  (H. Groth & M. Dahinden, Schweizer Monat, September 2020)
• Africa’s Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend
  (H. Groth & J. F. May, Springer, 2017)
• Unlocking a Demographic Dividend in Ethiopia - How Entrepreneurship Can Help Drive Job Creation
  (H. Groth, V. Barras & Z. Feng, WDA Forum, July 2020)
• Development Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparison of the Chinese, US and Swiss Approaches
  (Z. Feng, WDA Forum, April 2020)
• The Fundamental Differences in Development Strategies in Africa: A Comparison of the U.S., Chinese and Swiss Approaches
  (O. Kilchenmann, WDA Forum, April 2020)
• Afrika braucht jedes Jahr viele Millionen neue Arbeitsplätze
  (H. Groth, V. Barras & Y. Addai-Brenyah, Lilienberg Unternehmerforum, August 2019)
• Policies Needed to Capture a Demographic Dividend in Sub-Saharan Africa
  (H. Groth, J. F. May & V. Turbat, Canadian Studies in Population (2019) 46:61–72)
• Wir haben den reichsten Kontinent der Welt
  (enorm Magazin, Interview H.Groth, 2/2019)
• Afrika - Scheitern ist keine Option!
  (H. Groth, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Nummer 14 / 2018)
• Reviews of the Book "Africa’s Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend"
  (Professor Gloria Emeagwali, February 2018; Dr. John Bongaarts, September 2017)
• Kann Afrika die «demografische Chance» packen?
  (Neue Zürcher Zeitung (quote Hans Groth), December 2017)
• Afrika – Scheitern ist keine Option
  (Hans Groth, November 2017)
• Africa – Failure is not an Option
  (Hans Groth, November 2017)
• Failure to address Africa’s rising population is not an option
  (J. May and H. Groth, Financial Times, July 2017)
• Afrika steht vor einem Übergang; Hohes Bevölkerungswachstum
  (Neue Zürcher Zeitung (quote Hans Groth), June 2017)
• New Book Release: Africa’s Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend (English Press Release)
  (World Demographic & Ageing Forum, Population Reference Bureau, June 2017)
• Sexual & Reproductive Health: An issue that has been long neglected
  (J. May, Financial Times, June 2017)
• Flyer: Africa’s Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend
  (H. Groth and J. May (Eds.), June 2017)
• Neuerscheinung: Africa’s Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend (Deutsche Medienmitteilung)
  (World Demographic & Ageing Forum, Population Reference Bureau, Juni 2017)