Demography, public debt, financial markets and pensions

Allianz: Which country has the most sustainable pension system?

The most recent peak of the financial crisis has shown that borrowing is always dependent on the confidence of investors or rather, the outlook of speculators. As soon as their confidence in the security of debt repayment dwindles, funding sources quickly dry out and hefty risk premiums follow. Until now, the assumption has stood that national governments would always cover the outstanding debt in the system.

The «if» and «how» of the debt problems have, until now, not addressed looming demographic changes including longer life expectancy, fewer workers, and continued low fertility rates. At the latest, by 2020, this will no longer be a scenario for many OECD countries, but rather the reality.

• Gelungen länger leben!
  (H. Groth, Vorsorge News UBS (S.12), Oktober 2017)
• Sinnvoll länger arbeiten
  (H. Groth, Unternehmer Zeitung, September 2015)
• Population Dynamics Everywhere: How do we Preserve Wealth and Health?
  (H. Groth, WDA, April 2013)
• A Truly Impossible Equation: The Future of Welfare States in Times of Demographic Ageing
  (M. Trippel, D. Kulikov, Z. Davidov & H. Groth, November 2011)
• Demografischer Stress in der entwickelten Welt. Die Folgen der Alterung von Gesellschaften für die Staatsfinanzen werden oftmals unterschätzt.
  (H. Groth, N. Eberstadt, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 2010)
• Demography and Public Debt: The Crisis Beyond.
  (H. Groth, N. Eberstadt, Wall Street Journal, 2010)
• Ist die Gesundheit auch in Zukunft finanzierbar?
  (H. Groth, Vortrag Swiss Pharma Forum, 2010)
• Demography and national debt: At what time is it toxic? (English version)
  (H. Groth, N. Eberstadt, Essay)
• Demography and Public Debt: Time for a "Demographic Stress Test" for the Western Economies. What does it mean for Switzerland?
  (H. Groth, N. Eberstadt, WDA/HSG Letters, 2010)
• Demographie und Staatsverschuldung: Wann wird es toxisch? (German version)
  (H. Groth, N. Eberstadt, Essay)